We’re now just one day away from film’s biggest night, and despite certain films and filmmakers sweeping up awards left and right at other ceremonies, this year’s Oscars seems a little more unpredictable.
Last year’s Moonlight triumph in the Best Picture race threw a huge spanner in the works in being pretty much the only prize of that ilk not awarded to front-runner La La Land. This year could serve up a similar upset, with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri not even garnering a directing nomination (one of the year’s biggest snubs), suggesting the Oscars may once again split from the pack.
This throws certain other apparent locks into potential disarray, although some nominees seem unstoppable in their race up to the stage (especially in the acting categories). We could be in for a surprising night.
With Jimmy Kimmel returning as host, we can expect a well-paced and entertaining ceremony, having proved himself a great choice last year. We can also expect several allusions to the Best Picture ‘snafu’ of 2017, which we can also assume has been a catalyst for even more careful preparations this year.
Expect another political affair, however with the focus shifted from last year’s criticism of Trump towards the Time’s Up cause (although comments on the Dream Act may also appear). In this seemingly (and hopefully) game-changing year for Hollywood, there is no way the Oscars can sidestep it, even if they do in parts other than speeches.
Now, onto my predictions and opinions for this year’s winners…
Best Picture
Will win: The Shape of Water…or…Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win (in my opinion): The Shape of Water…or…Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Get Out
As stated above, the Oscars seems likely to go in a completely different direction to the other ceremonies, and with the most nominations, and a seeming lock for Best Director, The Shape of Water seems to be the safest bet. Although it may almost be cheating, the fact that the Academy shares many of its members with other awards groups makes a switch seem quite bizarre (as last year), so I’ve included Three Billboards as a possible win as well. I’d be happy with either. Only four films in the 90 years have claimed Best Picture without a directing nomination, so although not impossible, it has dented its chances. The underdog that could just pull off a huge upset could be Get Out. The Oscars has shown it much more love than other ceremonies, and the cultural weight of the film may have made enough impact to sway the votes. However, I would see this as a little less likely, as often it is not the most zeitgeist-y film that takes the crown. In all honesty, this is one of the most wide open Beat Picture races in years, and there is no clear lock, and a few plausible possibilities.
Directing
Will win: Guillermo del Toro ~ The Shape of Water
Should win: Guillermo del Toro ~ The Shape of Water
Possible upset: Christopher Nolan ~ Dunkirk
Del Toro seems to have this category all sewn up, and it is hard to imagine him not walking away from the ceremony without the Oscar in his hand. With the sore absence of a Martin McDonagh nomination, the only remote threat from the pack could be Nolan due to the technical scope and scale of his film, however, del Toro seems pretty unstoppable, and with the Academy’s love of The Shape of Water, he seems a sure bet.
Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Frances McDormand ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Frances McDormand ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Saoirse Ronan ~ Lady Bird…or…Sally Hawkins ~ The Shape of Water
It is pretty hard to think that McDormand won’t walk away as Best Actress after her barnstorming, powerhouse of a performance in Three Billboards. Having swept up practically every award to date, it is pretty safe to say she is a sure bet. The Academy’s love of young ingénues (Ronan) and The Shape of Water (Hawkins, who would also be deserving) would have seemed to have potential to rock the boat, but at this point, it seems like McDormand will claim her second Oscar (it has been over 20 years since her first).
Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Gary Oldman ~ Darkest Hour
Should win: Gary Oldman ~ Darkest Hour
Possible upset: Timothee Chalamet ~ Call Me by Your Name
The Academy’s tendency towards young ingénues is far overpowered by its sense of ‘I can’t believe we haven’t given this man/woman an Oscar yet’. Whilst Oldman’s performance this year is worthy of the Oscar alone, it is bolstered by his long and illustrious career. Chalamet poses a weak threat at this point, but, if this year is any indicator, I’m sure he’ll get his hands on one of those statues at some point.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Allison Janney ~ I, Tonya
Should win: Allison Janney ~ I, Tonya
Possible upset:
Janney has been sweeping up the awards this year, and completely deservingly. No one has pulled away from the pack to even pose a remote threat. Janney must be getting her hands on that statue on Oscar night for a very worthy performance. Plus, after her career, it is time.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Sam Rockwell ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Sam Rockwell ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Woody Harrelson ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another lock, Rockwell seems to have left no Supporting Actor trophies to anyone else. Another actor who is finally getting the recognition they deserve after many years of great work (perhaps the theme of this year’s Oscars), Rockwell gave a brilliant performance that seems untouched by any claimed controversy over his role (aka people not appreciating the film’s moral grey area).
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: James Ivory ~ Call Me by Your Name
Should win: James Ivory ~ Call Me by Your Name
Possible upset:
Once again, this category seems all sewn up. The film has the most hype of the nominees, and has received the most of this award throughout the season. If there is a possible upset, it could come from any of the other nominees, but I really doubt we’ll see one.
Original Screenplay
Will win: Martin McDonagh ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Martin McDonagh ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Jordan Peele ~ Get Out
This seems to be the category where either Three Billboards or Get Out will be rewarded if they lose out on Best Picture. Despite more Academy love for Get Out, in terms of screenplay, McDonagh’s intricate tale seems likely to win out, and he has claimed the prize at most of the big previous ceremonies. However, after Get Out’s win, with Three Billboards ineligibility, at the WGA awards, it isn’t quite as certain.
Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins ~ Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Roger Deakins ~ Blade Runner 2049
Possible upset: Dan Laustsen ~ The Shape of Water
After 14 nominations and no wins, this has to be Deakins’ year. One of the most revered and recognisable cinematographers of modern cinema (well, all time), it is almost criminal he doesn’t have an Oscar yet. Leo got his, now lets hope Roger too can break the curse (which he has suffered with for even longer).
It looks as though Animated Feature will go to Coco, with not a lot of competition from some smaller films, and other questionable fellow nominees.
Original Score looks boost The Shape of Water’s awards count (and add another Oscar to Alexandre Desplat’s mantelpiece). Production Design seems likely to also got to The Shape of Water for its wonderful world. Costume Design will likely go to Phantom Thread, a film based in the house of a dressmaker. Makeup and Hair must go to the Darkest Hour team for their extraordinary transformation of Gary Oldman to Winston Churchill.
A well-deserved Editing award looks likely to go to Baby Driver, giving it at least one tally. Sound Editing and Sound Mixing look to be between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, leaning more towards the latter in Sound Editing, and the former Sound Mixing. Visual Effects will hopefully go to Blade Runner 2049 for its magnificent world building.
In terms of Original Song, the runaway hit that is This is Me, from The Greatest Showman, would appear to be the favourite due to the traction it has gained. Coco’s Remember Me is also strong as a Disney entry. Additionally, both were written by previous Original Song winners. Of the other three, I would also like to see the entrancing Mystery of Love take the prize.
This year’s most exciting race seems to be in the Best Picture category; I’m not entirely sure which way it will go. Plus, with the lesser love towards Three Billboards, the Original Screenplay category could offer up an upset. There are a lot of certain locks, but overall a good mix. It appears that no film will fully dominate the night, instead there will be a good spread of awards. After a good batch of nominees, and lot of potential first-time winners, it should make for a good show.
