We’ve finally made it to Oscar night after what has felt like one of the longest awards season in recent memory. It’s also become one of the most exciting as frontrunners have failed to emerge in multiple major categories making it feel like it could truly be anyone’s game.

While the length of the season seems to have proved innocuous in the case of locks like Jessie Buckley, it may provoke an upset to the so far indomitable force that has been One Battle After Another. There’s been a feeling of momentum shifting to Sinners recently and the Oscars’ preferential ballot has been known to throw the prize a different way to many precursors in the last decade, but will it truly be enough to topple the PTA love?

We’ll find out tonight in a ceremony that should be entertaining with the return of Conan O’Brien as host, a man known not to play it too safe. It’ll also offer a chance to pay respects to the many titans of the industry that were lost in the past year with special tributes that are sure to be big moments in the show.

Whilst we will soon finally be free from some of the bizarre discourse that this awards race has kicked up, tonight offers one of the most unpredictable and exciting Oscars in a long time, with few presumed locks on who will be crowned an Academy Award winner. Whatever happens, it has been a banner year for cinema and based purely on releases (let’s ignore the rest for the moment), I haven’t felt so optimistic about the state of cinema for a long time.

Now, onto who I think will take the prize (although really, who knows at this point) and who my favourites are…

Best Picture

Will Win: One Battle After Another … or … Sinners

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Possible Upset: Hamnet

One Battle has been winning Best Picture awards left and right so it does feel like it has the edge going into tonight. It is a thrilling, politically-charged, winding masterpiece with moments that already feel like they will go down in Oscar history. However, Sinners can also lay claim to most of those attributes; it is another film charged by history and politics that also speaks to the modern world. It too has moments that will be forever enshrined in film history and was especially beloved by audiences, becoming something of a cultural phenomenon. Despite momentum feeling like it has shifted slightly towards Sinners, particularly after the Actor Awards, I think One Battle still has the edge. It also has the Oscars history of the perennial nominee that is Paul Thomas Anderson, the man behind many of the iconic films of the past 30 years. It was an electric and distinct cinematic experience. I wouldn’t be upset if Sinners took the crown, I loved it although I felt slightly thrown off by the pacing once the vampires came knocking. I think, personally, I am slightly leaning towards One Battle After Another. It’ll be interesting to see how the Oscars’ preferential ballot affects things. It is almost guaranteed to be either of those films, although a longshot upset would likely only be in the form of Hamnet but that would be a real shock.

Directing

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Possible Upset: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Even if Best Picture swings towards Sinners, I think PTA is a safe bet for director. He is a revered filmmaker and has proven himself to be a modern master with the filmography to back it up. A four-time Oscar nominee for Best Director and 14-time Oscar nominee overall (!) it feels like everyone wants to see him with an Oscar in hand and the hugely acclaimed One Battle After Another is the film that should be engraved upon it. Whilst legacy likely plays into the goodwill amongst film fans, this would not be a legacy win; it would be deserved for the film on its own merit. Coogler is the only possible upset here but it feels unlikely. He himself is another of the most exciting auteurs working today and the huge success of Sinners as an original film should hopefully give him a fully blank check to work free from any franchise constraints and I can’t wait to see what he does next. He’ll also likely be anointed an Oscar winner tonight, but not in this category…

Actress in a Leading Role

Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Should Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Possible Upset: Who are we kidding?

This is the closest thing to a lock we have tonight. Buckley has swept the entire awards circuit and seems unstoppable on her way to the podium to claim her richly-deserved award for her heart-wrenchingly human portrayal of grief, love and life. There was a moment earlier on in the season that seems to pin it as a two-horse race between Buckley and Rose Byrne (another truly excellent performance), but Buckley has steamrolled her way through since and her triumph tonight feels inevitable. I’ve been a fan of hers for years and it is great to see her come to much wider recognition (outside film circles). I’ll be glad to see her up on that stage tonight.

Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) … or … Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Should Win: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Possible Upset: Anyone really

What an exciting category this feels like it has become, although how much of that is down to discourse remains to be seen. Chalamet had seemed like the frontrunner for most of the season, but his loss at BAFTA seemed like the first stumble in what has now become a precarious position. The (well-deserved) winner there, Robert Aramayo, isn’t nominated at the Oscars (his film, I Swear, isn’t out in the US yet), but it was the first indication that the award might not be sewn up. Couple that with opinion on Chalamet souring a bit (before the opera-ballet drama which blew up after voting closed) as he seemed to lean too far into Marty Mouser’s arrogance in his campaigning and Michael B. Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards and the field feels a bit all over the place. Jordan feels like he has some momentum (coupled with the love for Sinners), but the Actor Awards, whilst often a good predictor, even have Chalamet-related precedence in recent years showing that they don’t always translate to an Oscar win (Chalamet won the SAG last year but not the Oscar). However, Jordan feels like a genuine possibility at this point (plus, he does have the kudos of playing two characters on his side, although so does Wagner Moura to a lesser extent). Leonardo DiCaprio was seen as a real contender earlier on in the season but hasn’t had much of a presence since (he doesn’t seem to be pushing hard for himself in the campaigns either). I’m still shakily predicting Chalamet (ehhh very shakily, Jordan really stands a good chance) and based purely on his performance I’d be happy to see him win (if only to shake the spirit of Marty Mouser that seems to still have a hold on his persona), but my personal secret hope is that in the messiness of the category, the votes split between Chalamet and Jordan to allow a shock win for Ethan Hawke. His performance was so chameleonic and touching I would love to see it win, but sadly Blue Moon doesn’t have the power behind it to have driven him far into the conversation. My winner, but honestly who knows what is going to happen at this point.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Should Win: I’m abstaining as I haven’t seen Weapons yet (I’m scared)

Possible Upset: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

A wide-open category, this one almost feels like anyone’s game (except, sadly, the Sentimental Value women). Madigan seems to have industry momentum but Mosaku could also ride the Sinners wave. Teyana Taylor was the early frontrunner but since then all three of them have won major awards. It’s nice to see the awards spread across multiple great performances, with each actress getting moments of recognition, particularly for roles that are so different. Madigan seems to have the momentum amongst peers and it would be great to see an industry veteran get recognised for a role that, on paper, no one could have predicted would get her to the Oscars. However, with her opponents starring in the Best Picture frontrunners, Madigan hasn’t got a wave to catch and it almost seems neck and neck.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Possible Upset: Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

Another category that has been all over the place and feels impossible to predict. The awards have been spread out across most of the nominees and the frontrunner status has shifted week by week. Jacob Elordi’s early momentum fizzled out quickly and Skarsgård seemed to become the favourite and beneficiary of industry goodwill. However, the tide has turned in recent weeks with Sean Penn taking two of the biggest precursor awards at BAFTA and the Actor Awards. He was also an early frontrunner, seriously impressing critics when the film was released. However, the swell in Sinners support could help Lindo and the desire to crown an industry veteran (who finally just received his first Oscar nomination) over a two-time winner could help. I wouldn’t count Skarsgård out either. This one will go down to the wire.

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Possible Upset: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (Hamnet)

Regardless of the One Battle vs Sinners narrative, the split across screenplays gives a chance for both Coogler and Anderson to walk away with a trophy. One Battle has a brilliant, sprawling screenplay which by all accounts is a feat of creative adaptation (I haven’t read Vineland, the novel it is based on). Hamnet too, was a terrific translation from the novel and would be a worthy winner but it is hard to imagine anyone but Anderson taking the trophy.

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Should Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Possible Upset: Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (Sentimental Value)

Coogler seems set to take the prize here, with the brilliantly original Sinners. The Academy also has a history of rewarding films in this category where they might not be rewarded elsewhere (especially when there’s a writer-director who isn’t likely to take the director prize). There isn’t really much chance of an upset here.

Cinematography

Will Win: Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another)

Possible Upset: Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners)

Another strong battleground in the Sinners vs One Battle race, Bauman might have the edge, even if just for that final chase sequence. I would be happy with either but seeing Arkapaw win in a category that atrociously has only ever had male winners would be brilliant. Train Dreams is also a strong contender (a sin that it wasn’t released widely in cinemas) but does’t seem like a threat at this point.

Other Awards

Ludwig Görransson seems set for Original Score for Sinners although I’d also love to see Johnny Greenwood’s jangly One Battle After Another score take the trophy.

Frankenstein looks set to sweep some of the big craft categories: Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup and Hair Styling.

One Battle After Another seems set to take Editing too (the film is so well-paced, its near three hours fly by).

Original Song seems to be owned by the ubiquitous Golden from Kpop Demon Hunters, which will probably take Animated Feature. Wins that will surely prove popular.

Visual Effects has to go to Avatar: Fire and Ash – even the third time around, it is still breathtaking.

It’ll be exciting to see who the inaugural Casting Oscar goes to; there isn’t much history to go by, but all of the nominees seem deserving. 

I can’t wait to see what happens. It’s all up for grabs; there will be plenty of surprises to keep us on the edge of our seats and, whilst predictions are all well and good, who knows what is going to happen. Not long before we find out…