Disclaimer: Frustratingly, there are still a few nominated films that haven’t been released in the UK yet, so I’ll be basing my predictions for those more off of the general consensus
The biggest night in the British film calendar is now only a day away, and the anticipation is reaching fever pitch. It is one of the last big ceremonies before the Oscars, and can often be a good indicator for what may go on to win there. However, it can sometimes be a little harder to predict BAFTA winners, as it is often the ceremony that skews a little differently in certain categories, most prominently favouring British talent. I’m going to try and guess what may win (although this year there seems to be a few more open races than usual), and also give my opinion on who I’d like to see hold up those masks.
Best Film
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win (in my opinion): Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: The Shape of Water…or…Dunkirk
The long shot: Darkest Hour
Three Billboards has garnered a hefty haul of nominations, has won most of the ‘Best Film’ awards at other ceremonies, and has the ‘British’ edge. However, I’d be happy with that, The Shape of Water or Dunkirk to win, the latter two being the main threats (especially Dunkirk with its distinctly British story), but Darkest Hour looks to be in with minimal chances of gaining the prize with few other big nominations, and little traction at other ceremonies.
Best British Film
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Paddington 2 or The Death of Stalin
The long shot: Lady Macbeth
Three Billboards is the awards giant amongst the bunch, and may claim the prize. However, this category is harder to predict as it is often those less nominated who win, and there is a lot of love around films such as Paddington 2, but the feeling at the moment is Three Billboards to break the curse.
Director
Will win: Guillermo del Toro ~ The Shape of Water
Should win: Guillermo del Toro ~ The Shape of Water…or…Christopher Nolan ~ Dunkirk
Possible upset: Martin McDonagh ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The long shot: Denis Villeneuve ~ Blade Runner 2049
Del Toro seems to be sweeping up these awards left and right, and deservedly so. He may be threatened here though by the British competition in the form of Nolan and McDonagh, although it doesn’t seem hugely likely. The long shots seem to be Luca Guadagnino (for Call Me by Your Name), and especially Villeneuve due to the omission of Blade Runner 2049 elsewhere.
Leading Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Sally Hawkins ~ The Shape of Water…or…Frances McDormand ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Saoirse Ronan ~ Lady Bird
The long shot: Annette Bening ~ Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
This looks to be a three-way race at the BAFTAs between Hawkins, McDormand and Ronan. McDormand seems to be claiming the most prizes at other ceremonies, but, once again, the British edge could push Hawkins over the top, or Ronan, who’s been snapping at McDormand’s heels along the way. With very little recognition for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool elsewhere, Bening seems to be going in with very low chances
Leading Actor
Will win: Gary Oldman ~ Darkest Hour
Should win: Gary Oldman ~ Darkest Hour
Possible upset: Timothée Chalamet ~ Call Me by Your Name
The long shot: Jamie Bell ~ Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Oldman seems to have this on lock, although I wouldn’t mind too much if Chalamet snuck in there, but it seems very unlikely at this point, and it has got to be Oldman’s time now. Bell seems like the long shot for much the same reason as his co-star Bening, and without overwhelming Get Out love, Daniel Kaluuya doesn’t seem hugely likely (although he’ll likely claim the Rising Star Award, if Chalamet doesn’t just pip him to the post), but once again the British edge could boost him, but probably not enough to beat Oldman. I would say don’t count out a nostalgic final win for DDL, but Oldman seems pretty unstoppable at this point, and Phantom Thread didn’t garner many noms.
Supporting Actress
Will win: Allison Janney ~ I, Tonya
Should win: Allison Janney ~ I, Tonya (Not released here yet but she’s a brilliant actress and has been sweeping up awards)
Possible upset: I honestly can’t really see anyone beating out Janney at this point
The long shot: No one in particular
Honestly, there doesn’t really seem to be a way for Janney to lose this. She has fully broken away from the pack to the point it doesn’t seem like even support for revered British actresses like Lesley Manville and Kristin Scott-Thomas could cause an upset. I would have pegged Scott-Thomas as the long shot, purely because she hasn’t garnered many nominations at the other ceremonies for this role, but she is a BAFTA darling. It would just be a huge surprise if we don’t see Janney up on stage giving an acceptance speech.
Supporting Actor
Will win: Sam Rockwell ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Sam Rockwell ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri…or…Woody Harrelson ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Christopher Plummer ~ All the Money in the World
The long shot: Hugh Grant ~ Paddington 2
Much like Janney, Rockwell has been sweeping up these awards left and right, and deservedly so. The competition he faced from co-star Harrelson seems to be ever diminishing as awards season rolls on. As the revered older actor, and in light of the circumstances of his participation in the film, Plummer could be a possible upset, but it seems extremely unlikely. Sadly Willem Dafoe seems to be destined to stay as a nominee throughout this awards season, and Grant seems unlikely due to his lack of recognition elsewhere. Again, though, Rockwell seems to be a pretty sure bet.
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: James Ivory ~ Call Me by Your Name
Should win: James Ivory ~ Call Me by Your Name
Possible upset: Armando Ianucci, Ian Martin, David Schneider ~ The Death of Stalin
The long shot: Simon Farnaby, Paul King ~ Paddington 2
Ivory seems to be the highly likely winner for his brilliant screenplay after winning most of the previous awards, and there’s little to indicated BAFTA going another way. Due to its nominations as Best British film, The Death of Stalin could be a surprise threat, although very unlikely. Paddington 2 and Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool lack nominations elsewhere so don’t seem poised to win, and Aaron Sorkin seems to be staying a nominee this year.
Original Screenplay
Will win: Martin McDonagh ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Martin McDonagh ~ Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Jordan Peele ~ Get Out
The long shot: Steven Rogers ~ I, Tonya
McDonaugh seems to be leading the way in this category. The threat from Peele is weaker here than at the Oscars, due to Get Out’s fewer nominations, however he could be a surprise winner. Coming up against the love for Three Billboards though, it seems much less likely.
Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins ~ Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Roger Deakins ~ Blade Runner 2049
Possible upset: Dan Laustsen ~ The Shape of Water
The long shot: Bruno Delbonnel ~ Darkest Hour
As a three-time BAFTA winner who seems to be gaining steam towards his first Oscar win this year, Deakins seems to be a (hopefully) safe bet for the award. There are really no others that have broken away from the pack, although the love for The Shape of Water could bolster Laustsen, but it seems unlikely to be enough to push him over the top.
I’ve not personally seen any of the Animated Film nominees, but it looks as though Coco is being generally favoured across the awards season, however Loving Vincent may take the prize.
Alexandre Desplat looks set to take home the Original Music gong for The Shape of Water, a film which also seems likely to take Production Design (although may have a fight from Blade Runner 2049) and a couple of other technical prizes.
I’d love for Editing to go to Baby Driver, however it seems a little less likely as the film hasn’t received much awards love as a whole. Sound (I don’t proclaim to be an expert in understanding this at all) I would guess might go to Dunkirk. Special Visual Effects looks like a tough category, but War for the Planet of the Apes might have the edge.
Make Up and Hair seems most likely to go to Darkest Hour for Oldman’s transformation, and Costume Design could possibly go to Beauty and the Beast for its lavish real-life incarnations of the classic animated looks.
All in all, it looks like there’ll be a spread of awards across many films. Whilst there are a number of locks, there are also quite a few open races, so it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow night.
